Chance is a Fine
ThingI
think, therefore I am not sure. To be completely sure is delusional, while to fear all possible outcomes is
madness. Intelligence built on experience gives a coldheaded assessment of the probable. Descartes didn’t quite complete the postulate but
founded the axiom that thought is the proof of being, and while being needs no further proof, clear assessments
of uncertainty are the axes for the continuance of being. Now the problem with probability is the empirical basis and the timeframe. The calculation
is simple – the likelihood function* We are all certain to die sometime, but meanwhile enjoy the chances of
life. Then and now have different outcomes. But what is the chance of earthquake or hurricane, starvation or plenty, job
or lover, girl or boy, bomb or bullet, warming or cooling, chaos or order, sense or madness, freedom
or subjugation?
We
must have a plan and a course, robust to events, yet adjustable. Everything – yes everything – is
like sailing the seas. The question is how sound is the boat and how good the crew?
